Trade Cycle Valuation of Growth Dynamics for Inflation and Recession Control: The Nigerian Experience

Abstract

Heavy dependence on international financial market renders the developing economies susceptible to global recession. Nigeria is a typical case of a developing economy which is inextricably linked with the international financial system and has recently exited from recession. To prevent recurrence and a vert a possible relapse into recession, study focused on a trade-cycle valuation of growth dynamics in Nigeria. Study spanned across 1970-2015. Data were sourced from CBN. Data were analyzed using time-series component of trend, seasonal variation and random factors. Findings indicate that: (1) Nigeria was an emerging large market (2) Nigerian economy was characterized by poor policy implementation (3) Trade openness subjected the Nigerian economy to the vagaries of international financial instability and global recession (4) Growth was not self sustaining (5) Reconfiguration of the Nigerian economy revolving around poverty and employment generation was an effective policy for economic recovery. Study concluded that poverty reduction and employment generation are sine qua non for the achievement of self-sustaining growth in developing countries. It was recommended, inter alia, that Nigeria and other African countries should forge trade relations into regional trading bloc to convert their competitive disadvantage into competing comparative advantage during trade negotiation in international market.